Boko Haram losses and the Nigerian election campaign
Lagos (AFP) - The Nigerian Army and its allies have claimed a series of successes against Boko Haram, on the face of it handing President Goodluck Jonathan a trump card in upcoming elections.
Lagos (AFP) - The Nigerian Army and its allies have claimed a series of successes against Boko Haram, on the face of it handing President Goodluck Jonathan a trump card in upcoming elections.
But experts say the apparent territorial gains may not translate into
votes at the ballot box on March 28, with the situation still uncertain
on the ground and tensions between the militaries involved.
Jonathan has been seen in combat fatigues congratulating troops after
the recapture of Baga in northern Borno while the military has widely
publicised its claimed gains on social media.
He told Voice of America in an interview published on Wednesday that
Yobe and Adamawa state would be rid of Boko Haram by next week, and
Borno within three weeks.
Earlier in the day, his government said 36 towns had been recaptured
since a military coalition involving Cameroon, Chad and Niger began a
concerted regional fight-back last month.
Ordinarily, a leader should be able to make political capital out of the
successes, but with Nigeria outgunned and out-manoeuvred for so long by
Boko Haram, the situation is not so clear-cut.
A lot of this (the military campaign) is coming almost as too little, too late," political commentator Chris Ngwodo told AFP.
"People are willing to applaud the Nigerian Army for what it's doing but
not willing to extend the applause to the president, the
commander-in-chief.
"I don't think it (the military campaign) is going to have the sort of dramatic, knock-on effect in the campaign."
- Good publicity -
Nigerians had been due to vote on February 14, with Jonathan and his
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) facing an unprecedented challenge from
Muhammadu Buhari's All Progressives Congress (APC).
An Afrobarometer poll at the end of January put Jonathan and Buhari
neck-and-neck on 42 percent, with the prospect that the PDP could lose
the presidency for the first time since 1999.
Buhari, a former army general who headed a military government in the
mid-1980s, has been seen as better placed to tackle Boko Haram, whose
rebellion has killed more than 13,000 since 2009.
The military under Jonathan has been repeatedly criticised for failing
to stop the violence, compounded by a series of previously misleading or
untrue statements.
Thomas Hansen, from Control Risks consultants, described the military
successes as "relatively credible" but with no independent verification,
fears of propaganda persist.
For Imad Mesdoua, the military offensive has given a potential advantage to Jonathan and the PDP in terms of publicity.
It certainly works in his favour and his party's favour," said Mesdoua, a
political analyst specialising in West Africa at the Africa Matters
consultancy in London.
"The president and his camp can point to genuine successes... The
narrative was very negative. That's kind of reversed entirely."
But Nigeria's military has still had to face down claims from Niger and
in particular Chad that their troops have played a major role in the
recapture of towns previously under rebel control.
Questions remain, too, about overall election security, with a recent
rise in suicide attacks and bombings by Boko Haram, which last weekend
pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group.
A longer term strategy once the military operation is over has yet to be
outlined, including what happens to the presence of foreign troops on
Nigerian soil.
- Voting intentions -
The controversial six-week extension to the election campaign was seen
as favouring the PDP, allowing them to regain the momentum from the APC
using the power of incumbency, including finances.
Since the delay was announced, both parties have campaigned less on the
stump at large rallies and indulged more in mud-slinging against
opponents and their backers.
Successful presidential candidates in Nigeria secure the mandate of both
the Muslim-majority north and the Christian-dominated south.
Identity politics has seen the Boko Haram conflict largely ignored
outside the northeast, with other factors -- including the current
parlous state of the economy or corruption exercising voters more.
"The key now would be for the government to really consolidate the gains
it has made against Boko Haram in the northeast," suggested Control
Risks' Hansen, a senior West Africa analyst.
"My gut feeling is that the security issue will only play a prominent
role in the voting in the areas most affected by security issues," added
Mesdoua.
"The way the vote is won is often attributable to a whole range of
complex factors. It can be from the region you're from to your ethnic
group to your age range."
Boko Haram losses for Nigeria election to continue
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Oleh
healthandwealth
