President Jonathan Gambles on War Against Boko Haram
Opponents of Goodluck Jonathan have long said the Nigerian president is
neglecting the war against Boko Haram for political reasons. Now, as the
country’s neighbors step up the fight against the Nigerian militant
group, Jonathan’s detractors are accusing him of doing just the
opposite: using the war on terror to save his own hide.
On Saturday, one week after Nigeria and its neighbors decided on new
steps to push back Boko Haram, the election committee in Abuja announced
that the presidential polls, originally scheduled to open on
Valentine’s Day, will now open March 28.
The reason, Nigerian officials say, is security. Voters will be put at
risk as the war intensifies, they say, and election workers will have
trouble distributing voter cards in the northeast, where the Islamist
militants are most active.
Jonathan’s national security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, told Agence
France-Presse that “all known Boko Haram camps will be taken out” by
March. But for months, Jonathan’s critics have hammered him on his
inability—or unwillingness—to confront the militants. They say that
Jonathan fears he’s losing ground in the elections and wants to use the
military incursion as a way to boost his popularity.
In the meantime, foreign diplomats warned the Nigerian government
against playing politics with terrorism. United States Secretary of
State John Kerry said he was “very disappointed” by the announcement,
adding that the government should not “use security concerns as a
pretext for impeding the democratic process.”
Those security concerns are real. Boko Haram’s actions led to a wide
international outcry last spring, when its Islamist fighters kidnapped
276 Christian schoolgirls, turning them into slave “wives.” First lady
Michelle Obama was famously photographed carrying a sign with the
hashtag “BringBackOurGirls.” Boko Haram is still holding most of the
girls, and the group has continued its reign of terror. The militants
have repeatedly assaulted villages in the northeast and recently started
infiltrating territories beyond Nigeria’s borders.
And while the fight against the Nigerian-based militants has been
overshadowed by the American-led war against ISIS, it’s certainly on the
minds of leaders on the continent. In late January, at a summit in
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, members of the African Union decided to form a
multinational force of 7,500 troops. As the Islamist fighters have made
incursions into neighboring Cameroon and elsewhere, the African Union
has confronted the militants in Nigeria and beyond.
Allowing Nigeria’s neighbors to pitch in couldn’t have been an easy
decision for Jonathan and his government. “Nigeria sees itself as the
most successful country in Africa,” said a diplomat who closely follows
African issues and spoke only on condition of anonymity because the
matter is sensitive. “It is certainly an embarrassment for Jonathan that
he needs outside help in a fight in his own country.”
Critics say that the Nigerian president has long neglected the war
against Boko Haram because it doesn’t help him politically. Northeast
Nigeria has few natural resources, and its largely Muslim population
would sooner vote for his opponent, Muhammadu Buhari, than for him.
Adebowale Ibidapo Adefuye, Nigeria’s ambassador to the U.S., declined to
comment, saying the political situation was too sensitive. But Nigerian
officials push back against the charge that the army is playing
politics with the war on terror.
As frustration mounts against Boko Haram, many see Buhari, a Muslim and a
former military man who once led Nigeria after a military coup, as
someone who would take a harder line against the militants. Incumbents
have long had an advantage in Nigerian elections. But criticism over
Jonathan’s war efforts, as well as recent corruption charges, has led
many observers to believe that Buhari is closing the gap and may well
win.
For its part, the government seems to be betting that dealing a decisive
blow to the militants will secure its place in power. But to date, the
country’s security forces have been unable to score major victories over
the Islamist group, whose name often translates to “Western education
is forbidden.”
The multinational force fighting the militants will consist of troops
from Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria. These countries,
especially Chad, have capable military forces, but if they are going to
succeed, analysts say, they’ll need outside support, especially when it
comes to mission-planning capabilities. They will also require arms and
supporting military hardware.
The question of funding the new force has yet to be resolved. Several
United Nations officials said that members of the Security Council are
preparing a resolution that would provide financial, diplomatic and
legal support for the nascent Pan-African army, allowing it to fight in
Nigeria and its neighboring countries.
France is expected to bolster the African Union soldiers, and some say
it’s already conducting air sorties over northeastern Nigeria alongside
Chad’s air force. The U.S. is prepared to work with the African Union
“to determine how best to assist it,” a State Department official said.
But as Marie Harf, the State Department spokeswoman, noted just before
Nigeria announced it would postpone the election, much will depend on
“them going forward with the elections as scheduled, holding them,
limiting the violence, having credible and fair elections.”
Unless the war against the militants is won before the election takes
place, which is highly unlikely, the future of that war could also
depend on what happens at the ballot box.
Jonathan Gambles on War Against Boko Haram
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Oleh
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